Braves Starting Rotation for 2008

Here's a mlbtraderumors.com article that adresses the Braves rotation for 2008: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/09/mailbag-braves-.html

Basically, Dierkes mentions who we have and the options in terms of what we can get. He says we could potentially sign Tom Glavine or make a play at a starter returning from injury (Matt Clement or Randy Wolf). Dierkes also comments on Renteria as a trading chip and in another article, says we might be able to trade Renteria for A.J. Burnett, which would be very interesting from a Braves perspective. Another option, supposedly, is Kei Igawa. It will definitely be interesting to see how this all shakes out.

Bob Wickman

The Arizona Diamondbacks have signed Bob Wickman. He better get used to pitching in non-save situations as the Diamondbacks have an excellent closer in Jose Valverde.

Player Update

Edgar Renteria was activated from the 15 day DL. He's not in the starting lineup, Yunel and Kelly will return to the platoon once Edgar returns.

Source: Rotoworld

Divisional Roundup 8/31/07 - 9/6/07

Mets: Orlando Hernandez has receivied a cortisone shot in his elbow, after feeling some discomfort in his start against the Phillies on August 30. Currently, he hopes to start again when the Mets play Atlanta, Sept. 10 - 12. This may be good news for the Braves, but Hernandez has a 2.77 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this year. To take his place Mike Pelfrey was recalled from Triple-A to pitch against the Braves, where he pitched very well. He gave up one hit, one run, in six innings of work in a 5-1 Mets victory. Pedro Martinez made his return to the rotation this week. He was on a 75 pitch count, and wasn't to exceed 35 pitches in an inning. He mostly threw in the low 80's, and only reached a high of 87 mph. He pitched well enough to get the win, 3 runs, 2 earned in 5 innings.

The Mets posted a 5-2 record over the last week. Their team ERA of 4.40 was good enough for 5th in the NL. Billy Wagner has continued his struggles, appearing in 2 games and giving up 4 runs. He recorded one loss, but still managed a save. On the other side of the ball, the Mets had a good week also, they scored 46 runs, and had a .292 batting average. The whole Mets lineup had a good week, but Alou had an especially good week hitting .500 in 18 at-bats, with 1 homerun and two doubles.


Phillies: Cole Hamels, who was scheduled to pitch on the weekend was scratched from his start. He felt some soreness in a bullpen session. The Phillies are saying it's nothing structural, but his had a history of arm trouble, it'd be a blow to the Phillies future rotations if this is serious. Freddy Garcia underwent surgery on a torn labrum. He's a free agent next year, and won't be ready until the All Star Break.

The Phillies went 3-4, which is miraculous, seeing as they had a team ERA of 7.09. That was worst in the NL. The charge was lead by Alfonseca who pitched only 1.2 innings and gave 7 earned runs. Things were much better for their offense, hitting .316 for the week. Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Jayson Werth all hit over .400 in at least 25 at-bats.


Marlins: Scott Olsen's start was pushed back a few days to work on a flaw in his delivery. This was sorely needed he was 1-7 in his last 8 starts. They recalled INF Robert Andino, the Marlins had hoped that he could play short, so they could move Hanley to center, but that doesn't look it'll happen any time soon with his poor hitting in Triple-A.

The Marlins didn't fare much better that the Phillies in the pitching aspect, having a team ERA of 6.27 which can be explained by their .319 BAA. Overall they went 2-4, their batting didn't fare to well either. They hit .278 but only scored 31 runs over the week. Nobody hit particularly well, the best was Hanley who had a .375 BA with a homerun and 4 doubles.


Nationals: John Patterson will have surgery on a nerve in his elbow, he had a similar surgery on a different nerve last off season. He should be able to make a full recovery during the winter. Christian Guzman, who was supposed to be out for the season with a thumb injury, could make a comeback for the last two weeks of the season. During September call ups the Nationals promoted Ross Detwiler, Justin Maxwell, Jonathan Albaladejo, Arnie Munoz and Ryan Langerhans.

The Nationals had an excellent week, going 5-1, and held a 2.77 ERA which was best in the NL over that span. The pitching was led by Jason Bergmann and Matt Chico, who both pitched 7 inning, 4 hit, 1 run ball. Their offense didn't fare quite as well, but was enough to get by. They scored 24 runs which was only better than Atlanta and San Fransisco.

Prospect Profile: Eric Campbell

We apologize for the inconsistency with respect to our columns, but we're still trying to work out the nuts and bolts and logistics of how to run the site. Expect more timeliness next week. So here it is...the inaugural Prospect Profile. Before I begin analyzing Eric Campbell, let me say we'd love to hear from you about what prospects to feature in this column from here on out. These don't necessarily need to be our TOP prospects. I'd rather do it on more obscure guys you readers are curious about. Send us an e-mail: tomahawktalk755@gmail.com to make a suggestion. Also, when I quote a batting stat line, it reads AVG/OBP/SLG, and then it is followed with "DTs". DT refers to Davenport Translation, which is a method developed by statistician Clay Davenport to translate minor league statistics into major league ones. So his DT stats are what he hypothetically "would have done" if he had been playing in the majors instead of whatever league he was in at the time. They account for league and park difficulty.


Now on to Campbell. I picked him because he's been in the news lately, getting suspended for the rest of the season down at High-A Myrtle Beach. He's hailed by many Braves fans as the inevitable replacement for Chipper Jones at third base. But is he really the guy we want replacing Chipper? Will his attitude be an issue going forward? Or perhaps the better question: Can he hit?


2004: The Braves drafted him in the 2nd round in 2004, 71st overall out of an Indiana high school, then signed him for a $500,000 bonus. He reported to the short-season GCL Braves. He hit just .251, but his 7 homers tied him for second in the league. He was drafted as a shortstop, and played most of his games there, but after 12 errors in 36 games at short, the Braves decided he was better suited for third base. He looked like a classic power prospect, hitting lots of homers, but also striking out in more than 20% of his plate appearances. He got a 22 at-bat cup of coffee at Rome after the Gulf Coast League season ended, and while I'd like to say he didn't embarrass himself, he really did, managing just 3 hits (all singles).


2005: The Braves moved him up to Rookie-level Danville in '05, and the Appalachian League hasn't been the same since. Campbell plowed through 262 at-bats, hitting .313/.383/.634 (DT: .257/.302/.449), with 15 steals to boot. He led the league in almost every offensive category imaginable: home runs (18), RBI (64), total bases (166), runs (77), doubles (26). He ranked third in hits with 82 and his 15 steals were good for fifth. However, his strikeout tendency actually increased, as Campbell struck out 64 times in 294 plate appearances (21.8%). His plate discipline clearly needed work, and his swing was still too long, but as a 20-year-old ready to move up to A-ball, he had plenty of time to fix things. The move to third base full-time was a successful one as well, as he showed good defensive promise at the hot corner.


2006: The promotion to Low-A Rome hurt his rate stats a bit, as he hit .294/.333/.514 (DTs: .272/.299/.464), but that disguises a marked improvement in his plate discipline. In more than two hundred more plate appearances (as compared to 2005), he struck out just four more times. Unfortunately, increased plate discipline didn't translate to increased patience, as he also walked five LESS times despite all the extra PAs. The power continued to show as he led his league in homers yet again, but still showed a maddening tendency to try to pull every pitch within four feet of home plate. He played some solid defense at second base in the Hawaiian Winter League, making his stock that much more interesting, as the Braves had no second baseman at the time (of course, the arrival of Kelly Johnson has really destroyed any potential value he might have had at second). But here's the interesting part: he got sent home early from the Hawaiian Winter League team for unspecified disciplinary reasons (a precedent to the suspension he would earn in 2007).

2007: This is where things get really dicey for Campbell. He moves up to High-A Myrtle Beach, a killer environment for any hitting prospect's numbers. But Campbell gets murdered. On June 13, he's hitting an abysmal .168/.265/.318 and he's already missed 31 games with a wrist injury. He picks it up a bit through the end of June, finishing the month at a respectable (remember how tough the league is) .250/.321/.428. He would go back on the DL again before the season was out, and his season ended on August 21st as the Braves suspended him for the rest of the season for "insubordination". He also built up a bad rep for inconsistent effort. At the plate, he never could shed his pull-hitting tendencies, going to left field with nearly 50% of his balls in play. He finished hitting just .221/.312/.406. But there is reason for hope. He kept his strikeout rate the same while nearly doubling his walk rate (from about 5% of his PAs to 10%).

Campbell is something of an enigma. If he can maintain his excellent power stroke while increasing his selectivity to keep his walk rate up, he can be a great player. And he's got the glove to be a good one at the hot corner. Besides needing to keep working on his swing, he still clearly has some attitude issues which need to be dealt with. His 2007 season certainly diminished his former status as Heir Apparent to Chipper Jones, but there's still reason to believe he will one day fill Chipper's Mizunos as the Braves' third baseman.

Joe Blanton?

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors:
"Perhaps [the Athletics should] try to match up with the Braves by offering up a Joe Blanton for Yunel Escobar...The discussion for either [Blanton or Haren] would begin with two top-flight prospects, hopefully position players...[A's GM Billy] Beane should shoot for a shortstop, third baseman, and top pitching prospect."

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/09/needs-and-luxur.html

Well isn't this handy. Blanton is exactly the guy we need to fill our #3 rotation slot, and he'd do a superb job there. Hasn't even reached arbitration yet. Doesn't strike out a lot of guys, but is posting a career high in K rate this year. What's making the difference is his vastly improved control (he's down from 2.69 BB/9 to a ridiculous 1.41 BB/9). He keeps the ball on the ground (1.41 GB/FB ratio). He's an awesome talent, and could even become an ace with a move to the NL. He's a legit #2 in the AL as it is, and he's ranked 23rd in the league in VORP among pitchers.

What's best is they NEED a shortstop. They can't expect anything out of Bobby Crosby anymore, and Escobar is young and talented to fill a need there. What's also nice is that they want POSITION prospects. The Braves are strong in position prospects, but weak in pitching, and most teams want pitching, which handicaps the Braves' ability to make deals. But I'd offer Escobar (to fill their shortstop need), Eric Campbell (third base) and Jo-Jo Reyes (pitching prospect) any day of the week.

Blanton is EXACTLY what the Braves are looking for.Here's our 2008 rotation then (2007 VORP rank in parentheses):Tim Hudson (9th), John Smoltz (14th), Joe Blanton (23rd), Chuck James (77th), Mike Hampton (NR)

Three of the top 25 pitchers in baseball? Yum. Add in a Torii Hunter signing, and the Braves are the best team in the National League, hands down.

Let's do this.

Player Update

Brian McCann is day-to-day with a left ankle contusion that he suffered in todays comeback victory against the Phillies. But, with the off day tomorrow he might not have to miss a game.

Source: Rotoworld

Braves 9 Phillies 8

Wow. The Braves score 7 runs in the final 2 innings to secure a win over the Phillies. The rally was capped by a 3 run double that tipped of Roverson's glove, with 2 outs by Matt Diaz in the bottom of the ninth.
Now, lets go back to the start. Hudson had another below average start giving up 5 runs in 5 innings, 11 hits, 2 walks, and 4 strikeouts. The phillies got 3 in the first, with an RBI single from Rowand and Werth. Then in the second, a solo shot from Pat Burrell, and a sac fly from Chase Utley added two more. Next, it was the Braves turn in the bottom of the sixth. Willie Harris had a solo shot, his second of the year, and Chipper scored Kelly from first on an RBI double. The Phillies scored three more in the seventh off Oscar Villarreal.

Now for the good stuff. Chipper doubled to lead off the bottom of the eighth, Teixeira flied out. Mccann then singled, which sent Chipper to third, then Francoeur singled, scored Chipper and sent Brian to second. Thorman then singled to load the bases, then while Yunel was batting, Brett Myers threw a wild pitch, to score Chris Woodward (pinch running) and send the runners up a base. Yunel walked, Diaz singled to score a run, then Harris walked to score another run.

Bottom nine, two outs, bases clear, Jeff singles, then Prado singles, Yunel walks, sets the stage for Diaz who clears the bases with a walk-off double to the opposite field.

Player of the Game: Well, I think it's pretty obvious, but I'll try and explain how big Diaz was. Using a statistic called WPA, this stat is updated live during games at fangraphs.com. It gives you the data on how likely you team is to win the game. They can also assign a percentage to a player on how much they helped their team to win a game. Teams have even chances to win at the start of the game so each team has a 50% chance of winning, a team only needs to gain another 50% to win the game. Matt Diaz won 90.8% of the game for us, or a WPA .908, the league leader for the season, A-Rod, has a combined WPA on the season of 6.10. WOW!

Prado Called Up

The Braves have called up 2B Martin Prado. This article from atlantabraves.com also mentions that after Richmond coucludes its season, Chad Paronto, Joey Devine, and Gregor Blanco could be called up.

Do The Braves Still Have a Shot?

As of today, the Braves are 7 1/2 out of first in the NL East; and 5 1/2 out of first in the NL Wildcard, with 4 teams ahead of them. There are 24 games left to be played, 5 against the Phillies, 3 at the Mets, and the rest are against teams that are 1 game over .500 or worse.

In the AJC (subscription required), Terrence Moore reminisces about other teams that have over come greater deficiets. In 1964, the Cardinals trailed 6 1/2 games to the Phillies with 12 games left to play. The Cardinals managed to win the pennant with 1 game of breathing room over the Phillies. Remeber the 'Miracle Mets' in '69, or the 2002 Oakland A's who won 20 straight games to make it to the playoffs. Moore uses these teams as proof that the Braves still have a shot, even though everyone is dismissing them as non-contenders.

PECOTA projects the Braves to have a 6.5% chance to make the playoffs. It only gives us a .75% chance to win the division, so we'll concentrate on the wildcard. On average, the winner of the NL Wildcard has 88 wins. Currently, the Braves have a record of 70-68, to make it to 90 wins which has a good chance to clinch the Wildcard, the Braves would need to go 20-4 the rest of the season. This sounds hard, and it is. But, it is definitely possible for the Braves and their explosive offense, with the help of some solid starting pitching from James, Carlyle, and Cormier.

Sheldon Taylor

Game Thread

Sorry we haven't beeen doing game threads and recaps...its taking us a little bit of time to get organized. Also, my cowriters are out of town and may not be getting access to a computer. Anyway, today will start the threads and recaps. I think we have a pretty good sense of timing, as today's the fifth career matchup of Glavine and Smoltz.



Tom Glavine (11-6, 4.15) goes against John Smoltz (12-6, 3.06) in what should be an exciting matchup of two future hall-of-famers. Game time is 1:05 P.M. and the game will be broadcast on TBS.

Waiver Trade Deadline

With the waiver trade deadline passing a couple of days ago, many Braves fans are asking why we didn’t go after a pitcher that had cleared waivers, like Odalis Perez or Josh Towers. The obvious question is “Would an acquisition have really mattered?” But for the sake of dicussion, let’s take a look at these players and evaluate whether or not they could have helped the Braves.

Odalis Perez, the former Brave is an interesting case. His ERA, 5.57 doesn’t look great, but he hasn’t been helped by a .337 BABIP, or batting average on balls in play. Here is a short Wikipedia article explaining BABIP. Whan you consider that a .300 BABIP is league average, you can couclude that Perez has been unlucky. His ground ball %, 45%, is very solid as well. Now to the negatives. His K/9 rate has dipped to a career low 4.19 while his BB/9 rate has increased from 2.21 to 3.28. This probably means that he is pressing too hard, trying to be perfect too much. Brandon Webb had similar symptoms earlier in the season, and I’d say he’s done all right, so the problem is most likely fixable. The main problem is his contract. He’s making 7.75 million this year, and has a 9 million club option for next year. As a result, any trade may have been a rental.

Verdict: Good Decision to Pass

Josh Towers is a more interesting case. As of now, Towers sports a 5.19 ERA, but he’s pitching in the toughest division in baseball. Shave about a run-and-a-half off that ERA (shift to National League and easier division) and you have an excellent ERA. His peripherals are soild across the board. His K/BB ratio is 3.60 (right behind Jake Peavy), which is exceptional. His HR/9 rate and BABIP are too high, suggesting that he’s been unlucky as well. His contract isn’t bad either. He makes 2.9 milllion in 07’, and he’s arbitration eligible in 08’. He has had clubhouse issues, dissing fellow Blue Jays, but that clubhouse does that to people. If you don’t remember, Shea Hillenbrand became upset when nobody in the front office congratulated him on the adoption of his child and he later got in a fight with manager John Gibbons. Anyway, I hope Schuerholz at least inquired, but no rumors have provided evidence to support it.

Verdict: Should’ve Taken A Stab

Not Enough Passion?

“We’ve got to start playing with a little more passion.”

This was said by Tim Hudson after yesterday’s loss. Here’s the question: Are the Braves a little too tight? You never see some of the crazy high-fives and chest mashing as you see in other team dugouts. Also, there are the comments made by former Braves. Recently shipped out Kyle Davies commented that he felt restricted in the clubhouse. Here’s an excerpt from a recent AJC story:

Davies said he immediately felt comfortable in the Kansas City clubhouse."Everybody comes up and talks to me; it's not like it's all business," he said, which spoke to how he'd felt in the Braves clubhouse recently. He was asked, then, if he thought the Braves' clubhouse, which has a reputation for quietly professional, was too buttoned down.
"I don't think they're buttoned down, but I just think everybody is uptight," Davies said. "Everybody is trying to do this, trying to do that, instead of letting everything come to them." Which means Davies was doing that too, right? "You're a product of what you're around," he said.

Braves fans who have painfully watched this brutal stretch know that something is going wrong. Generally, one way to break out of a rut is to change things up. Maybe a more cheerful, enthusiastic attitude would help turn things around. It’s worth a try.

Some Braves fans would point out, and rightfully so, that the Braves have had these policies throughout the streak and wonder why the Braves would deviate from that attitude. When you look at the team through the 90’s, most of the Braves teams were comprised of veterans, with maybe a few rookies. Now, the team is younger, with Yunel Escobar, Brian McCann, Kelly Johnson, and Jeff Francoeur playing key roles. Perhaps these players would thrive in looser atmosphere. What are your thoughts?