Do The Braves Still Have a Shot?

As of today, the Braves are 7 1/2 out of first in the NL East; and 5 1/2 out of first in the NL Wildcard, with 4 teams ahead of them. There are 24 games left to be played, 5 against the Phillies, 3 at the Mets, and the rest are against teams that are 1 game over .500 or worse.

In the AJC (subscription required), Terrence Moore reminisces about other teams that have over come greater deficiets. In 1964, the Cardinals trailed 6 1/2 games to the Phillies with 12 games left to play. The Cardinals managed to win the pennant with 1 game of breathing room over the Phillies. Remeber the 'Miracle Mets' in '69, or the 2002 Oakland A's who won 20 straight games to make it to the playoffs. Moore uses these teams as proof that the Braves still have a shot, even though everyone is dismissing them as non-contenders.

PECOTA projects the Braves to have a 6.5% chance to make the playoffs. It only gives us a .75% chance to win the division, so we'll concentrate on the wildcard. On average, the winner of the NL Wildcard has 88 wins. Currently, the Braves have a record of 70-68, to make it to 90 wins which has a good chance to clinch the Wildcard, the Braves would need to go 20-4 the rest of the season. This sounds hard, and it is. But, it is definitely possible for the Braves and their explosive offense, with the help of some solid starting pitching from James, Carlyle, and Cormier.

Sheldon Taylor